15-07-2025
How To Become An Energy Superpower
Canada wants to become an energy superpower. But what does that mean and how do you achieve that ... More goal? (Photo by DAVE CHAN/AFP via Getty Images)
In his first remarks as Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney pledged to make the country a '…superpower in both conventional and clean energy.' But what does it really mean to be an 'energy superpower'?
Let's define it: an energy superpower is a country that wields influence over global energy markets through its substantial resources, production capabilities, infrastructure, trading capabilities, strategic policies and innovation capabilities. It can influence global prices, supply security and geopolitical alignments while maximizing the value of its domestic resources.
Energy hegemony matters because the world's future economy demands vastly more energy. If all 8 billion people on Earth consumed as much energy per capita as the average North American, we would need five times today's energy supply. That doesn't even account for the impact of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.
In April, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt testified to the US Congress that energy demand from datacenters could triple by 2030, rising from 3% of demand now to 9%. By 2050, AI may account for more than half of total energy consumption in advanced economies. The rising global need for air conditioning amid record-breaking heat adds even more pressure, as does the mining of cryptocurrencies. If we supplied all that energy using fossil fuels, we would ensure that our climate crisis becomes a catastrophe.
Today's energy superpowers are losing their grip. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Middle Eastern countries influence prices through OPEC and 'swing' capacity, but they lack clear energy transition strategies. The same is true for the United States, which leads in oil and gas production but has bungled its position in clean energy thanks to political dysfunction. The recently signed 'Big Beautiful Bill' ends various clean energy tax credits passed under President Biden, promising yet more uncertainty for energy innovators.
In addition, the US and Canada have driven up the supply of LNG, dreaming that it will replace coal, but that may never happen. Cheap solar and wind have pushed LNG demand and prices downward, causing many projects to be cancelled. The outlook for the next five years is simply not good for LNG, as analysts continue to warn. And then there is Russia, which is rapidly losing influence over European energy markets.
Meanwhile, China—with few fossil fuel resources—is emerging as the next dominant force in global energy, as I discussed in a previous post. Why? China controls critical minerals and their processing, dominates solar, wind, EVs and battery production, and is investing in advanced fission and fusion energy. As The New York Times put it, 'There's a race to power the future. China is pulling away.'
If China becomes an energy superpower, it probably will use that position as a geopolitical cudgel. But it is not too late for the West. What our business and political leaders lack is a focused plan and the will and tenacity to achieve it. China has a strategic vision, crisply defined in five-year plans. The West has, well, elaborate permitting processes defined in legalese. We spend time determining who can't build what where, while China funds deliberate innovations and builds whatever, wherever it chooses.
The next battlegrounds for energy superpowers are small modular reactors (SMRs), geothermal and, most importantly, fusion energy. Often called the 'holy grail' of clean energy, fusion promises reliable, abundant and safe baseload anywhere, anytime, with limited need for additional infrastructure. The country that cracks fusion first will almost certainly dominate global energy markets.
Becoming an energy superpower requires long-term commitment, and China is investing accordingly. If countries in the West are serious about competing, they will need four things:
Let's not forget that rising demand for energy is only part of this story. The growing frequency and cost of extreme floods, storms, wildfires and heatwaves, fueled by climate change, started this race to replace fossil fuels with cleaner and more scalable sources of energy.
This is, indeed, a race. The first countries to become clean energy superpowers will be able to attract valuable industries, create high-paying jobs and wield geopolitical power for decades. The question isn't whether there will be a new energy superpower—it's whether the West has the will to outcompete China and the guts to challenge shortsighted business leaders and politicians at home who are committed to a status quo that is economically and ecologically untenable.
